Forecasting: crawl, walk, run. How finance teams move from basic budgets to predictive insight
Forecasting maturity doesn’t happen overnight.
Most finance teams move through clear stages as their organisation grows, complexity increases and expectations change. We tend to see the same patterns repeat regardless of industry.
Knowing whether you’re crawling, walking or running matters. It helps you invest in the right forecasting capability at the right time without over-engineering too early or holding yourself back longer than you should.
Here’s a simple framework we use to visualise that journey, grounded in what we see across real organisations.
Crawl: getting the foundations right
At the crawl stage, forecasting is about control and confidence.
This is where many organisations begin often relying on annual budgets, spreadsheets and manual processes and it’s usually where trust in the numbers first comes under pressure.
Typical characteristics:
Annual budgets with limited reforecasting
Excel-heavy processes
Manual reconciliations
Reporting that looks backward rather than forward
What teams are trying to achieve:
One version of the truth
Confidence in actuals
A repeatable planning process
What good looks like:
Clean actuals flowing automatically from the ERP
Structured dimensions and hierarchies
Simple forecast updates that don’t break models
Example in practice:
Atom focused first on establishing strong planning foundations — ensuring actuals, budgets and forecasts aligned before introducing more advanced forecasting techniques. That groundwork made later enhancements far easier and more sustainable.
Walk: rolling forecasts and better insight
As organisations grow, static annual budgets lose relevance quickly.
The walk stage is where forecasting becomes more frequent, more structured and genuinely useful for decision-making not just a compliance exercise.
Typical characteristics:
Rolling forecasts (monthly or quarterly)
Forecast snapshots for comparison
Variance analysis across periods
Less reliance on spreadsheets, more on planning tools
What teams are trying to achieve:
Visibility into where the business is heading
Faster responses to change
Better conversations with leadership
What good looks like:
Standard forecasting methodologies (prior year, prior month actuals, plan holds)
Automated variance reporting
Management-ready P&L and balance sheet views
Finance spending time analysing, not assembling
Example in practice:
At IDP, rolling forecasts and structured reporting enabled finance to respond more quickly to changing market conditions, while giving leadership consistent, comparable views of performance throughout the year.
Run: predictive, driver-based forecasting
At the run stage, forecasting becomes a strategic capability not just a finance process.
This is where larger or more complex organisations tend to land particularly those where finance is expected to influence strategy, not just report on it.
Typical characteristics:
Driver-based and scenario modelling
Sales, workforce, capex and cashflow planning
Predictive insights and trend analysis
Executive dashboards and commentary-ready reporting
What teams are trying to achieve:
Anticipate outcomes before they happen
Test decisions before committing
Align strategy, operations and finance
What good looks like:
Connected plans across the business
Minimal manual intervention
Predictive signals and anomaly detection
Finance acting as a strategic advisor
Example in practice:
Woolnorth Renewables uses rolling forecasts and multi-scenario planning to support long-term infrastructure and renewable investment decisions.
Key reminder:
Advanced forecasting only works when the foundations are solid. Running before you can walk almost always creates fragility.
The most important part: knowing where you are
The biggest forecasting mistakes we see usually come from skipping steps:
Overbuilding too early
Custom logic that limits future upgrades
Underinvesting once complexity has arrived
A crawl–walk–run approach helps teams:
Build confidence first
Scale forecasting safely
Invest in the right capabilities at the right time
The goal isn’t to be at run.
It’s to be at the stage that best supports your business today — with a clear, practical path to what comes next.
Final thought
Forecasting maturity isn’t about sophistication for its own sake. It’s about giving decision-makers timely, trusted insight and freeing finance teams to focus on explaining performance, not chasing numbers.
Whether you’re crawling, walking or running, clarity on where you are is what makes progress possible.
Where do you sit?
If you’re unsure whether your forecasting is still crawling, already walking or ready to run that’s completely normal. Most finance teams we speak to feel they’re somewhere in between.
A short, practical conversation can help you:
pressure-test where your forecasting is really at today
separate what’s genuinely worth improving now from what can wait
clarify a sensible next step that fits your business not someone else’s maturity model
sense-check what you’ve got, talk through what’s working (and what’s not), and get clarity on what comes next
If that sounds useful, reach out to the Pivot2 team we’re always happy to have the conversation.